Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1
نویسندگان
چکیده
We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.
منابع مشابه
Evaluation of a point-of-care blood test for identification of Ebola virus disease at Ebola holding units, Western Area, Sierra Leone, January to February 2015.
Current Ebola virus disease (EVD) diagnosis relies on reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) technology, requiring skilled laboratory personnel and technical infrastructure. Lack of laboratory diagnostic capacity has led to diagnostic delays in the current West African EVD outbreak of 2014 and 2015, compromising outbreak control. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the EVD bedside rapid diagnos...
متن کاملPredicting Ebola infection: A malaria-sensitive triage score for Ebola virus disease
BACKGROUND The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk "probable" wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual ...
متن کاملOffering general pediatric care during the hard times of the 2014 Ebola outbreak: looking back at how many came and how well they fared at a Médecins Sans Frontières referral hospital in rural Sierra Leone
BACKGROUND In Bo district, rural Sierra Leone, we assessed the burden of the 2014 Ebola outbreak on under-five consultations at a primary health center and the quality of care for under-15 children at a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) referral hospital. METHODS Retrospective cohort study, comparing a period before (May-October 2013) and during the same period of the Ebola outbreak (2014). Heal...
متن کاملSymptom- and Laboratory-Based Ebola Risk Scores to Differentiate Likely Ebola Infections
Rapidly identifying likely Ebola patients is difficult because of a broad case definition, overlap of symptoms with common illnesses, and lack of rapid diagnostics. However, rapid identification is critical for care and containment of contagion. We analyzed retrospective data from 252 Ebola-positive and 172 Ebola-negative patients at a Sierra Leone Ebola treatment center to develop easy-to-use ...
متن کاملNotes from The Field: Ebola Virus Disease Cluster - Northern Sierra Leone, January 2016.
On January 14, 2016, the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation was notified that a buccal swab collected on January 12 from a deceased female aged 22 years (patient A) in Tonkolili District had tested positive for Ebola virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The most recent case of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in Sierra Leone had been reported 4 months earlie...
متن کامل